40 new cases on 1,848 tests, and two deaths.
While the contagion spreads, it is doing so at a slower rate per day than a few weeks ago. California's official assessment puts R(t) at 0.78 in Marin County, which would imply that we'd be on course to get COVID well under control. This is puzzling: it might be true, but could be an artifact of the number of cases in San Quentin declining as infected inmates are transferred out. The underlying data puts Marin R(t) at 1.03, which seems more reasonable, so that’s the basis of the map below.
rt.live shows R(t) for the entire state at 0.97 (the official State website has R(t) at 1.02, estimated from a calculation based on using about a half dozen institutions' different models in an ensemble analysis). The estimates are both within each other's estimate range.
Sources: Marin HHS, https://rt.live/us/CA and https://calcat.covid19.ca.gov/cacovidmodels/
