COVID big picture

The official state depiction of R(t) now has Marin county with R(t) of 0.91, which would suggest that growth would be easing. That's hard to square with the rapid rise in case counts in recent days.

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Two places I rely on for R(t) at a state level give estimates of 1.09 and 1.17 - close enough to each other to align on steady spread.

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One oddity that many have observed is that many states - including California - have seen rapid rises in case counts but not in deaths. That has been attributed to lots of factors: younger new cases, time lags, and so on. But the most recent statewide picture indicates that the approximately exponential growth in cases continues - and fatalities are again climbing: 137 yesterday, and 151 the day before.

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Marin HHS data doesn't quite add up (again) but ... 63 new cases yesterday, no new deaths.
The geographic breakdown suggests more new cases, including 3 in Sausalito. A big contribution to growth in the San Rafael contagion numbers in recent days has come from (yet another) nursing home - this time one off San Pedro road, which has recorded, gulp, 66 cases (49 residents and 17 staff) and three deaths in the past week.

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Sources: Statewide picture LATimes (statewide case counts and fatalities) calcat.covid.ca.gov (map and R(t) estimate for Marin), rt.live, covid19-projections. MarinIJ for the nursing home count. County data: Sources: Marin HHS except the SQ data, which is from SFist, MarinIJ.com for the data on the nursing home outbreak.